Will Cyber Warfare Replace Conventional Warfare?
Good afternoon everyone!
In today’s post, I’d want to use the cyber attack that hit Ukraine in January to answer the following question: Will Cyber Warfare Replace Conventional Warfare?
First, let me briefly explain why there is a crisis between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine has built close ties with the West since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 but protests erupted in Ukraine in 2014 when the country’s pro-Russian president rejected an association agreement with the EU in favor of tighter relations with Moscow. Russia’s response was to annex Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. Last year, a surge in cease-fire breaches in eastern Ukraine and the concentration of Russian soldiers near Ukraine fueled concerns of conflict, but tensions eased when Moscow withdrew the majority of its units in April. However, Moscow has recently placed over 100,000 troops across Ukraine’s borders, along with tanks and other heavy equipment, raising new worries of an invasion.
In addition to conventional conflicts, Russia has opted to fight in cyberspace and Ukraine was targeted by a cyber-attack on January 14th, shutting down the websites of many government offices, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Education. According to reports, suspected Russian hackers put a message on the foreign ministry’s website: “Ukrainians! All of your personal information has been made public. Be scared and prepare for the worst. It reflects your past, present, and future.” The message included a copy of the Ukrainian flag and a map that had been crossed off. It alluded to the Ukrainian rebel force, who fought against the Soviet Union throughout WWII. There was also mention of “historical land.” Ukraine claims that evidence points to Russia as the perpetrator of the cyber-attack. However, the Kremlin, as usual, dismissed the charges, claiming that there was no evidence that it was behind the attack.
Nonetheless, this is merely one of several cyber operations undertaken by Russia against Ukraine. Russian–Ukrainian cyberwarfare has indeed been a feature of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine since the Soviet Union’s demise in 1991. The first assaults on Ukraine’s computer systems of commercial firms and official organizations were reported during large protests in 2013. Russian cyberwarfare continued with the Christmas 2015 and 2016 Ukraine power grid hacks, the paralysis of Ukraine’s State Treasury in December 2016 and a mass hacker supply-chain attack in June 2017.
So, will Cyber Warfare Replace Conventional Warfare?
Military strategy, as history has taught, must adapt to new areas. The new realm is cyberspace. While conventional combat will continue to exist, technology and cyber operations will help it.
Cyber warfare has the potential to render traditional military technologies that rely on computers and electronics inefficient or outdated. A conventional system that cannot respond to a multi-pronged threat in “digital time” or that cannot give defense while attacking others may be rendered obsolete in the future. As a result, the idea is that cyber warfare will complement rather than replace traditional combat.
Sources:
Harding, L. (2022). Ukraine hit by ‘massive’ cyber-attack on government websites. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/ukraine-massive-cyber-attack-government-websites-suspected-russian-hackers
O’Neill Sciarrone, Marie. (2017). Cyber Warfare: The New Front. Bush Center. https://www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/modern-military/sciarrone-cyber-warfware.html
Pawlak, P. (2020). Cyber Conflict Uncoded. European Union Institue for Security Studies. https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/cyber-conflict-uncoded
Secure World. (2019). Cyber War vs. Traditional War: The Difference Is Fading. The Secure World. https://www.secureworld.io/industry-news/cyber-war-vs-traditional-war